Netanyahu Bloc Leads 53-48, But Arab Parties Hold Key to Israel's Next Government

The Central Elections Committee reported on Wednesday evening that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc maintains a lead in the Israeli election count, though neither camp has secured the 61 seats required for a standalone majority. At that time, more than five million votes from Tuesday's election had been processed, with the official tally standing at approximately 88 percent.

Netanyahu's bloc is projected to win 53 seats, while the opposition bloc is expected to take 48. The gap is bridged by Arab parties, which have won a record combined total of 19 seats at the last count. This arithmetic leaves both sides dependent on those parties to cross the threshold for governance.

Likud, Netanyahu's party, is projected to secure 26 seats, returning it to the position of largest party in the Knesset. Other coalition partners are expected to win smaller shares, with United Torah Judaism, Shas, and Otzma Yehudit each projected at seven seats, and the Religious Zionist Party at six. Most pre-election television polls had indicated Likud would win considerably fewer seats.

The opposition bloc features Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party at the top with a projection of 21 seats. Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad is projected at 12, Yair Golan's The Democrats at eight, and Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu at seven. Two smaller parties, People of Israel and The Reservists-Economic, are projected to miss the 3.25 percent threshold for entry into the Knesset.

Uncertainty remains regarding double-envelope ballots, which are due to be counted overnight. These ballots are cast by eligible voters such as soldiers, hospital patients, prisoners, and certain election workers who vote outside their assigned polling stations. The final count of these votes could shift the seat projections.

Tensions rose on Wednesday as Likud accused Arab parties of election fraud, citing claims of bribery, intimidation, and ballot manipulation. The party demanded an immediate investigation by law enforcement. Meanwhile, President Isaac Herzog urged leaders to approach the mandatory consultations with open minds to prevent a repeat of the election.

Yair Golan stated he would meet with three opposition leaders on Thursday and argued that the opposition has a majority if it includes Arab parties. He noted on social media that he knows how to count to 120. However, other opposition figures, including Liberman, have expressed skepticism about governing with Arab parties following the 2023 October 7 events.

Joint List chairman Yousef Jabareen said his party is ready to support the removal of the Netanyahu government. MK Ahmad Tibi added that the opposition could form a government if it demonstrates the necessary political will. The outcome of coalition talks will determine whether Israel faces another election or a new government led by either Netanyahu or an opposition candidate.