Polls Show Young and Low-Income Voters Shifted to Democrats in 2026 Midterms
The AP Voter Poll reveals that voters under 30 and those with household incomes under $50,000 moved away from Republicans compared to the 2024 presidential race.
By Mateo Thompson ·
Voters under the age of 30 and those with household incomes below $50,000 shifted toward Democratic candidates in the 2026 midterm elections, according to The AP Voter Poll. The survey found that these demographic groups reversed the support they showed for President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris during the 2024 presidential campaign. The AP Voter Poll surveyed more than 100,000 registered voters across all 50 states between October 19 and November 3 in Alaska, and between October 22 and November 3 in other states.
Among voters under 30, approximately 70 percent supported the Democratic candidate in their local U.S. House race, while about 30 percent voted for the Republican. This represents a sharp change from 2024, when this age group was roughly evenly split between Trump and Harris. Only about 10 percent of the national electorate in 2026 was under 30, which limited the total impact of this demographic shift. However, about 60 percent of voters under 30 stated that opposing Trump was a primary reason for their vote.
Hispanic voters also moved toward Democrats. Roughly 60 percent of Hispanic voters nationally supported the Democratic House candidate, compared to about 33 percent who backed the Republican. This trend was visible in the Texas Senate race, where Democrat James Talarico defeated Republican Ken Paxton. About 60 percent of Hispanic voters in that race supported Talarico. In Florida, Republican Senator Ashley Moody won reelection with less than half of Hispanic voter support, a drop from the definitive Trump victory in that group two years prior.
Black voters, particularly Black men, returned to Democratic candidates. About 90 percent of Black voters supported the Democratic House candidate, up from roughly 80 percent who backed Harris in 2024. In Georgia, Keisha Lance Bottoms became the first Black woman elected as governor, with about 90 percent of Black men voting for her. In Florida, Republican Byron Donalds was elected as the state's first Black governor, though about 25 percent of Black men voted for him over Democrat David Jolly.
Moderate voters increased their support for Democrats, with roughly two-thirds backing the Democratic House candidate. About 80 percent of moderates said Congress was not providing enough checks and balances on the presidency. In key Senate races in Kansas, Iowa, and North Carolina, Democratic candidates won strong majorities of moderate voters, exceeding the support Harris received in 2024. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton won about 70 percent of moderates, while in Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek won about two-thirds.
Lower-income voters cited economic hardship as a major driver of their vote choice. More than half of voters with a 2025 household income under $50,000 voted for the Democratic House candidate, a group that was previously split between the two parties. About 60 percent of voters in this income bracket said the cost of living was crucial to their decision. The AP Voter Poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 0.6 percentage points for the full sample.
