Miami Locks In Playoff Spot as Indiana and Utah Face Critical Weeks
The Hurricanes hold a 98.3% chance of advancing, while four teams in the second tier battle injury and turnover issues to secure remaining bids.
By Mateo Thompson ·
Miami enters the College Football Playoff rankings with a 98.3% probability of advancement, the highest likelihood among the 29 contenders. The Hurricanes remain undefeated at 8-0 following a tight victory over North Carolina. Their defense has allowed 31 points per game over the last three weeks, yet their offense continues to compensate. Miami is projected to finish the regular season 10-2, with all three remaining games played at home. The team is favored by at least 17 points in each of those matchups.
Four teams sit in the next tier, each with a high but variable chance of making the field. Indiana leads this group at 89.2%, though quarterback Josh Hoover is battling arm issues. He completed only 16 of 37 passes in his last two games. Backup Grant Wilson entered the overtime win over Minnesota and completed 9 of 17 passes for 156 yards. Notre Dame follows at 86.4%, Utah at 85.6%, and Georgia at 84.7%. Approximately 3.5 of these four teams are expected to receive a bid.
Notre Dame must address its slow starts, as it trailed in the first half of both its loss to BYU and its win against Navy. Utah aims to win at least one of its next two games to secure a quality victory. The Utes led Cincinnati 42-6 at halftime on Saturday, scoring touchdowns on all four offensive drives. Georgia must reduce its turnovers, having fumbled 15 times this season. The Bulldogs lost two fumbles against Florida and face critical tests at Ole Miss and South Carolina.
The third tier contains three teams with roughly 65% to 71% odds. UCLA shut out Nevada 27-0, improving to fourth nationally in fewest points allowed per drive. The Bruins are projected to finish 11-1. Ohio State sits at 68.6% after losing quarterback Julian Sayin to injury. The Buckeyes allowed 6.8 yards per play to USC in their last game. Wake Forest is 65.4% likely to advance, having beaten its last four opponents by an average of 47-8. The Demon Deacons are second nationally in points per drive.
Seven teams form the fourth tier, with odds ranging from 35.5% to 57.1%. Texas Tech leads this group at 57.1%. BYU holds a 51.4% chance, bolstered by a win over Notre Dame. Alabama, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss, and Kentucky follow. Kentucky’s odds are 35.5% despite a 7-1 record, as SP+ ranks them 88th in points allowed per drive. The tier is expected to produce approximately three playoff bids.
Ten teams comprise the fifth tier, with Houston leading at 23.1%. Tennessee, USC, Iowa, Arizona, Missouri, Northwestern, Florida, SMU, and Oregon follow. This group is projected to yield a single bid. Iowa visits Northwestern in a critical matchup, while Florida faces Oklahoma. Most of these teams must win out to have a viable chance, though none have a greater than 31% probability of doing so.
Boise State and New Mexico lead the Group of Six race for the final guaranteed bid. Boise State won 46-45 against Texas State, surviving a dramatic collapse in the second half. New Mexico held on against San Jose State, preventing an 89-yard interception return for a touchdown. James Madison was effectively eliminated after an overtime loss to Troy. Both Boise State and New Mexico are projected to finish the season with winning records and remain the front-runners for the non-conference bid.
