Prediction Markets Called 98% of Midterm Races Hours Before Networks

Prediction market platforms called 98 percent of major midterm races correctly, a figure that outpaced traditional media calls by several hours. Kalshi announced Wednesday that its markets accurately predicted 98 percent of House, Senate, governor, attorney general, lieutenant governor, and secretary of state races. The company compared market favorites at 5 p.m. EST, shortly before polls closed in Indiana and Kentucky, to the final results announced so far.

Traders wagered nearly $2 billion on Tuesday's elections across platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, according to a recent Washington Post analysis. This volume nearly doubled the $1.3 billion traded during the 2024 election cycle. Kalshi reported total election market volume reached $2.5 billion for this cycle, signaling a surge in user participation and capital flow into these digital betting exchanges.

Polymarket reported its own accuracy rate at 98.4 percent for resolved races when compared to odds from the day before the election. The platform achieved 97 percent accuracy in Senate and governor races and 98.6 percent in House races. Shayne Coplan, the CEO of Polymarket, noted on social media that the gap between prediction market calls and network calls has grown. He stated that networks wait for absolute certainty to maintain suspense, while platforms provide real-time data.

Democrats secured victories in highly competitive seats in Texas, Maine, and Kansas, results that were reflected in market odds well before official declarations. Ross Dahlke, a professor of computational social sciences at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said the markets react quickly to new information. He explained that traditional media often prioritizes fact-checking over speed, which slows down their race calls.

Congressional lawmakers are watching the sector closely due to concerns about insider trading and gambling addiction. They worry that individuals with access to pertinent information on current events may profit unfairly. The industry has faced scrutiny since it exploded in popularity following the 2024 election, where traders correctly picked Donald Trump to defeat Kamala Harris.

Despite the recent success, the platforms have had notable misses. Polymarket showed Flávio Bolsonaro with over an 80 percent chance of winning the Brazilian presidency late last month before he lost to incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Kalshi traders priced in a 78 percent chance that Spencer Pratt would advance in the Los Angeles mayoral primary, but Karen Bass and Nithya Raman faced off in the final contest instead.

Matthew Bakowicz, a business professor at American University, said this election cycle may have introduced a new customer base to the industry. He noted that successful predictions create a powerful incentive for casual observers to become active traders. As these platforms attract more participants and larger amounts of money, lawmakers are likely to focus increasingly on market integrity and regulatory frameworks.

The accuracy of these platforms has shifted how many voters and analysts track election outcomes. They now serve as a real-time indicator of public perception and race momentum. This change occurs as the industry grows in size and influence, drawing both new users and new regulatory attention from Washington.