Dobbins' 12.4 carries per game may be the Broncos' best asset
Data suggests the veteran back is more effective late in the season when he logs fewer touches early, a strategy that aligns with Denver's current roster constraints.
By Mateo Thompson ·
Denver Broncos running back J.K. Dobbins has averaged 12.4 carries per game in 2026, his lowest usage rate since 2022. Head coach Sean Payton is limiting Dobbins' workload in favor of rookie Jonah Coleman and second-year player RJ Harvey. Dobbins defended this approach to reporters at Dove Valley, noting that the organization has a long-term plan for him.
The decision stems from Dobbins' injury history and performance trends. The former Ohio State star has played in only 11 regular-season games from December 1 onward in his seven-year career. In contrast, he has played in 43 games from September through November. Dobbins stated that he wants to win and that the coaches are saving him for the long haul.
An analysis of Dobbins' career statistics reveals a clear correlation between early-season workload and late-season efficiency. In seasons where Dobbins accumulated 100 or fewer carries in his first eight games, he averaged 6.1 yards per carry in all appearances after December 1. Over 94 carries in those late-season stretches, he gained 572 yards.
The data flips when Dobbins takes on a heavier load early. In years where he recorded 101 or more carries in his first eight games, his average dropped to 3.6 yards per carry after December 1. In those instances, he rushed for 165 yards on 46 carries. This statistical split suggests that a lighter workload in the first half of the season preserves Dobbins' effectiveness when the temperatures drop and the playoff race intensifies.
The Broncos, currently 5-2, host the Kansas City Chiefs in a contest for the top of the AFC West on Sunday at Empower Field. Historical trends suggest Dobbins might receive 13 carries in this game, which would bring his total to 100 through the first eight games. Hitting that specific threshold would align his usage with the seasons where he performed best late in the year.
Dobbins acknowledged the trade-offs of his current role. He noted that while everyone wants him to play 17 games, the immediate goal is winning. He added that he has been in the playoffs many times and his primary objective is winning a Super Bowl. He described his willingness to do whatever it takes to achieve that goal.
The analytical team at Grading The Week compared Dobbins' situation to that of Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor. Taylor is averaging 22 carries in December and January games in his career, even after averaging 16.8 carries in September and October contests. This comparison highlights the differing strategies employed by teams managing their star backs.
Financial constraints also factor into the decision. According to OverTheCap.com, the Broncos had only $4.4 million in cap space as of last Friday afternoon. Trading for Taylor would require a cap hit of $21 million in 2027 and $22.98 million in 2028. The current strategy of managing Dobbins' workload avoids these immediate financial obligations while potentially maximizing his late-season production.
