Governor races: 18-18 split, 19 open seats, nine battlegrounds

Voters in thirty-six states cast ballots today to determine the next governors, a decision that will reshape the balance of power in state governments across the country. The current landscape sees Republicans holding twenty-six governorships and Democrats holding twenty-four. However, among the specific races on the ballot this Tuesday, the split is perfectly even, with each party holding eighteen offices. This equilibrium sets the stage for a pivotal contest that could shift the national majority, which Republicans have maintained since 2010.

The Associated Press describes the election as a referendum on President Donald Trump's second term, with voters struggling with high prices and anger over an unpopular war with Iran. In this context, the governor races are critical. Democrats would need a net gain of two governorships to achieve a nationwide majority. This goal is significant because a Democratic majority in governorships has not occurred in two decades.

A major factor in today's voting is the number of open seats. Nineteen of the thirty-six governor races have no incumbent on the ballot. Fifteen governors are term-limited, preventing them from seeking another term. Three others chose not to run: Iowa's Kim Reynolds, Minnesota's Tim Walz, and Wisconsin's Tony Evers. Additionally, Rhode Island's Daniel McKee lost his primary. This high number of open seats creates uncertainty and allows challengers to define the race on their own terms.

Nine governor races are identified as battlegrounds by Ballotpedia: Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, and Wisconsin. In these states, the outcome is closely contested. Democrats are defending five governorships in states that Trump won in 2024: Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Republicans are defending two in states that Harris won: New Hampshire and Vermont. The AP calls Texas, Florida, and Iowa competitive governor races, adding further stakes to the day's proceedings.

In Georgia, Republican health care executive Rick Jackson faces Democratic former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms to succeed Brian Kemp. In Nevada, Republican Governor Joe Lombardo competes against Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford. In Ohio, Republican Vivek Ramaswamy faces Democrat Amy Acton. Ramaswamy's campaign has faced backlash over an ad featuring Acton's estranged mother, a development that has drawn national attention. These matchups represent key tests for both parties in states that are central to the broader midterm narrative.

In California, polls are open from 7 a.m. To 8 p.m. Local time, and the state is voting largely by mail. There is no Senate race in California today. The governor race is an open seat, meaning there is no incumbent running for re-election. California is one of six states using new congressional maps after mid-decade redistricting, a change that may influence voter behavior in the state. The AP notes that the Justice Department threatened to prosecute local election officials, and a federal judge ordered the administration to stop demanding that California election officials segregate ballots cast by people on lists of suspected noncitizens.

The mood among voters is shaped by economic concerns. The AP-NORC poll shows that 35% of U.S. Adults approve of Trump's job performance, and 25% approve of his handling of the economy. About seven in ten say the country is heading in the wrong direction, and most blame the president for high prices. Voter James Moore, a librarian in Raleigh, North Carolina, said, "I'm paying more taxes. I'm paying more for my healthcare. I'm paying more for everything." This sentiment is likely to influence votes in governor races where economic policy is a key issue.

Republican National Committee Chairman Joe Gruters emphasized the importance of turnout, stating, "Everything depends on turnout. If we turn out our voters, we win, and that's what we've been planning for." In contrast, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries has outlined a 100-day agenda on the cost of living and oversight if Democrats win control of the House. More than 57 million people had already voted as of Monday, surpassing the early vote of four years ago in many closely watched states. This early turnout suggests high engagement in both House and governor races.

The 2026 elections are likely to be the most expensive in history. Republican committees outraised and outspent Democratic committees, helped by Trump-affiliated groups and Elon Musk. However, at the candidate level, Democrats outraised their opponents. The AP analysis of AdImpact data shows that 88.1% of Republican general election TV ad spending went to states and districts Trump won in 2024. This spending pattern indicates a focus on defending existing Republican strongholds, including several of the governor races on the ballot today.

In Minnesota, Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Republican Michele Tafoya, a former sports broadcaster, are among four candidates for retiring Sen. Tina Smith's seat. While this is a Senate race, it highlights the broader contest for control of state governments. In Kansas, a reliably Republican state has become central to the fight for Senate control, and the governor race is also competitive. The AP notes that the Trump administration filed a lawsuit in Alaska related to the certification of the Senate result, a move that has raised questions about election administration in several states.

As polls close today, voters in California and other states will make their choices. The outcome of the thirty-six governor races will determine the balance of power in state governments and could have implications for the 2028 presidential race. A strong Democratic night would boost potential candidates like Gavin Newsom, JB Pritzker, and Pete Buttigieg. Conversely, a Republican hold would reinforce their control over state leadership. The results of these races will be a key indicator of the national mood and the direction of the country in the final two years of Trump's second term.