Orange County narrows gap in gubernatorial race, defying national trends
Local voters backed Xavier Becerra by a tighter margin than the state average, while rejecting billionaire tax proposals by wider margins than their statewide counterparts.
By Mateo Thompson ·
Orange County voters presented a sharper division than the rest of California in the 2026 midterm elections. Early returns show Democrat Xavier Becerra winning the governor’s race in the county with 54% of the vote, compared to 64.5% statewide. Republican Steve Hilton, who secured the endorsement of President Donald Trump, captured roughly 46% of the county’s ballot. The discrepancy suggests a persistent political split that resists the broader Democratic momentum seen elsewhere in the state.
The local margin reflected a pattern across statewide offices. Jon Gould, dean of the UCI School of Social Ecology, noted that the results indicated straight-ticket voting behavior. Voters chose candidates for lieutenant governor, secretary of state, controller, treasurer, insurance commissioner, and the state Board of Equalization largely based on party alignment rather than individual merit. In the race for attorney general, incumbent Rob Bonta defeated former Huntington Beach City Attorney Michael Gates with 53.5% of the county’s votes.
Ballot measures revealed specific local economic priorities. While voters statewide rejected Proposition 39, which required voter identification, by a 59% to 41% margin, the opposition in Orange County was narrower at 2.5%. Conversely, the county voted against Proposition 40, a proposed one-time tax on billionaires, by a wider margin than the state. Approximately 60% of local voters opposed the measure, compared to 54.5% statewide. Propositions 41 and 42, which would invalidate the billionaire tax if it passed, also saw stronger support in the county than in the state at large.
Will O’Neill, chair of the Republican Party of Orange County, attributed the mixed results to national headwinds. He stated that the national sentiment was against Republicans, causing races across the ballot to suffer. O’Neill emphasized that local Republicans turned out in higher numbers than in the previous cycle and cited victories in Costa Mesa, Newport Beach, and Huntington Beach as positive outcomes. He described Hilton’s campaign as energetic and focused on areas of the state that had been ignored.
Registration data indicates a shifting demographic baseline. Democrats crossed the 700,000 registered voter threshold in the county before Election Day. This milestone gave the party a lead of 64,150 over Republicans in registered voters. The UCI School of Social Ecology conducted a poll in April that found 34% of residents identified as Democrats, 30% as Republicans, and 36% as independent or something else. Gould described the county as evenly split, noting that even in a year favorable to Democrats nationwide, the political terrain remained purple.
The congressional map in the county is also changing. Orange County is on track to have an all-Democrat delegation except for one seat. Redistricting forced incumbent Republicans Young Kim and Ken Calvert to compete for the 40th Congressional District. Calvert is currently leading that race. The local party’s push for more registered Democrats aligns with efforts to move beyond the county’s historical purple status.
Gould cautioned against interpreting the results as a generational shift. He stated that the six-to-seven point differences in statewide races are modest compared to trends elsewhere. The results suggest a county that is becoming incrementally bluer but retains distinct local preferences on taxation and party loyalty.
