UK Aid Spending Expected to Miss 2027 Target by £400 Million
Center for Global Development analysis finds inflation and policy changes drove the shortfall, prompting calls for emergency funding in the upcoming budget.
By Lauren Bello ·
The United Kingdom is projected to fall short of its own 2027 international aid target by an estimated £400 million. New calculations from the Center for Global Development indicate that the country’s official development assistance will amount to just 0.29% of national income next year. This figure misses the government’s set goal of 0.3% by a wide margin.
Researchers at the think tank analyzed the Treasury’s central forecast, which implies a £410 million gap in planned spending. They noted that a larger shortfall of £580 million, or 0.28% of national income, is considered a very plausible scenario. Even under the most conservative estimates, the gap between planned and actual spending remains at £250 million.
Ian Mitchell, a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development and co-director of its Europe programme, described these figures as material shortfalls in the spending power of UK aid. Mitchell argued that closing a £400 million gap would be sufficient to halve the planned cuts to Africa. He warned that these reductions are likely to cost thousands of lives and effectively amount to a UK exit from the south and east of the continent.
The organization identified two primary causes for the discrepancy. First, inflation has exceeded expectations, resulting in a larger national income than originally forecast during the spending review. Second, a 2025 policy change affecting the budget of the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office contributed to the drop. The researchers urged ministers to add funds for international aid in this week’s budget to avoid the criticism associated with missing a public target.
The current 0.3% goal for 2027 sits well below the 0.7% promise made in Labour’s election manifesto. Prime Minister Keir Starmer lowered the target to free up money for defence spending. Fleur Anderson, a former minister on the foreign affairs select committee, stated she wants to see higher aid spending in the upcoming budget. She said, "At the very least we should be hitting the reduced target that was set." Anderson added that falling short is not an abstract accounting issue, pointing to communities without clean water and undelivered vaccines.
Charities have repeatedly warned that deep aid cuts will damage children’s education and raise the risk of disease and death in some African countries. Figures released by the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office in September showed that the cuts under the current government hit the world’s poorest nations hardest. Funding to the least-developed and low-income countries fell by 6.7%, a reduction of £118 million.
The UK’s overall official development assistance budget dropped to 0.44% of gross national income in 2025, down from 0.5% in 2024. This represents a fall of £987 million. The government has prioritised funding through multilateral bodies such as the International Development Association and the World Bank’s development arm. It has also maintained humanitarian support. Meanwhile, the Conservatives and Reform UK have pledged to cut annual aid from about £9 billion to £1 billion.
An FCDO spokesperson stated that multi-year aid allocations published in March 2026 set out spending plans for the next three financial years. These plans were based on gross national income at the time of the 2025 spending review. The spokesperson said, "Moving to a fixed budget reduces volatility and provides the necessary stability to deliver high-impact aid programmes."
