Knesset Race: 640,000 New Ballots May Decide 12 Seats
Young Israelis face a choice between security priorities and economic concerns in Tuesday's election.
By Lauren Bello ·
Israelis head to the polls on Tuesday, Oct. 27, with a demographic shift that could reshape the 120-member Knesset.
The Israel Democracy Institute estimates 640,000 voters aged 18 to 22 are eligible for the first time. This group represents nearly 10% of the total electorate. Their collective vote could determine the outcome for as many as 12 seats.
Political leaders are courting this new bloc with events and messaging. Yael Chernyvsky, 18, from Ramat Hasharon, attended a rally in Tel Aviv where more than 1,000 first-time voters gathered. She is currently in an army preparation program in the Negev. Chernyvsky said she votes to "change the future of this country." She plans to support either the Democrats, led by Yair Golan, or Yashar, led by Gadi Eisenkot. Both parties belong to the opposition bloc seeking to end Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's tenure.
Netanyahu has held the premiership since 2009, with a brief interruption in 2021 and 2022. Tammy Hoffman, who heads the education policy program at the Israel Democracy Institute, said young voters will likely make a difference if turnout remains high. She noted that Israel has a high birth rate, which keeps the electorate young. The institute co-sponsored the Tel Aviv event with the Yigal Allon Center.
Surveys indicate high confidence among this demographic. A May survey by the Israel Democracy Institute found that 80% to 95% of prospective first-time Jewish and Arab voters said they would definitely or probably cast a ballot. Secular Jewish youth showed the highest certainty. Among Arab voters, 87% intended to vote. A separate poll for Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth found 67% of young respondents certain they would vote, with another 19% thinking they would. This compares to a 47% youth turnout in the 2024 US presidential election.
National security and the cost of living rank as the top concerns for these voters. Hoffman said these issues resonate because this generation lived through the pandemic, the judicial reform protests, and the events of Oct. 7. She described the group as worried about their future. Despite this, political leanings remain mixed. An N12 poll from Sept. 23 found 74% of young people identify as right-wing or center-right, while 23% identify as left-wing or center-left. In that survey, 16% said they would vote for Yashar and 14% for Netanyahu's Likud.
Mock elections in high schools show varied preferences, with strong support for Yashar and Beyachad, the latter led by former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid. Support for Itamar Ben-Gvir's far-right party is low among students. Individual voters show specific policy priorities. Omer Gross, an 18-year-old from Jerusalem in an army-prep program in the Golan, plans to back the Religious Zionist party. He supports the party's West Bank policies despite disagreeing with its approach in Gaza. He said, "We need a strong, secure Israel."
Other voters focus on economic and social reforms. Tomer Shiloh, 18, of Herzeliyah, will vote for the change bloc. He wants the next government to require ultra-Orthodox men to serve in the IDF and to lower living costs. A 22-year-old reservist, identified as Sgt. M due to IDF anonymity rules, cited tuition, books, food, and housing costs as reasons to vote for the Democrats. Khalel Alaa Sabeh, 18, from Shef-Amra, supports an Arab party focused on closing resource gaps and tackling crime. He said, "I won't leave the country. This is my land, this is my home."
